The number of Albertans who have died over the past three years has been much higher than what would be considered normal for that time period, and not all of the increase is attributable to COVID-19 deaths, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
Weekly death estimates from the federal agency showing there were 9,821 additional deaths over the course of the pandemic, from early 2020 to the first week of November 2022. That’s roughly 10,000 more people died than would normally be expected for the same time period. Researchers call this number Excess deaths.
Official coronavirus death statistics indicate that the disease is responsible for a significant proportion of excess deaths. Alberta Health data shows that 5,277 people died of COVID-19 between January 2020 and early November 2022.
But experts say the COVID-19 numbers miss the true loss of life since 2020. They point to a variety of possible factors for other deaths, including Toxic drug crisis in the county A medical system under pressure.
Others argue that Alberta is underestimating the number of COVID-19 deaths.
But no matter how deaths are calculated, it is important to know what is happening in order to better address the root issues, according to the Calgary doctor who has spent countless hours with COVID patients.
“We’re getting into the semantics of dying from COVID, or dying from COVID,” said University of Calgary public health researcher Dr. Gabriel Fabbro.
“And really, it’s irrelevant from a health systems perspective, or a population health perspective. Too many people are dying that they shouldn’t be dying.”
Demographers say some of the excess deaths can be attributed to an aging and growing population. But the past three years have seen a significant jump in total deaths.
Not everyone agrees on the number of excess deaths in the region. There are different methodologies for calculating this number. Estimates of excess deaths vary.
Tara Moriarty, an infectious disease researcher and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, estimates the number of excess deaths in Alberta at 10,232.
She believes underreporting is one reason for the high numbers of excess deaths in most provinces, including Alberta.
in its latest reportMoriarty estimates that Alberta lost thousands of deaths during the Omicron period (December 2021 to November 2022) of the pandemic.
It estimates the number of cases and deaths based on the rate of infection in the population on a given date. The proportion of projected cases and deaths depends on jurisdictions with more detailed COVID testing and data sharing such as Quebec and the United Kingdom — jurisdictions where excess deaths closely match COVID deaths, she says.
Alberta designates a COVID death status As a person who died of COVID-19 or where the disease was a contributing factor and was confirmed by a antemortem laboratory test. But deaths have also been reported in pooled care outbreaks where only rapid testing was done, according to Alberta Health.
When it is unclear whether COVID caused or contributed to a death, it is classified as “unknown” and reviewed by health officials, including nurses, physicians, and, in some cases, the medical examiner.
in Definition of Quebec Includes laboratory confirmed cases. It also includes cases where a person who developed symptoms of COVID dies without any other clinical explanation, after being exposed to a positive case in a close contact environment, such as living under the same roof. A positive test result is not required in those cases.
According to her report, Moriarty says most Canadian provinces have overemphasized Covid deaths among the elderly and other missing persons.
“There is a significant increase in mortality in younger age groups, even after you adjust for toxic drug deaths, which are probably also underreported,” Moriarty told CBC News.
Before the pandemic arrived, Alberta averaged approximately 40 to 75 drug poisonings per month. Once May 2020 arrived, that number dropped below 100 just once and reached 175 deaths per month.
a Separate study in AlbertaBased on the weekly death estimates, it looked at excess deaths between March 2020 and December 2021. It found that nearly 55 percent of the deaths were attributed to COVID-19. But she also notes that an additional quarter of overdose deaths are related to drug poisoning.
“Although the elderly are more likely to die from COVID-19, an exponential increase in non-COVID-19-related deaths has been observed among young people,” she said.
A spokesman for Alberta Health Minister Jason Copping said the excess death figures are not the result of underreporting.
In a statement, the spokesperson added that the department is confident that the county has reported COVID-19 deaths. He cites alcohol, drugs – especially opioids – an aging population and increased demands on the health care system as reasons for the rise.
“The pandemic has led to significant delays of care between 2020 and 2022, which is also contributing to acute morbidity that may influence excess mortality numbers,” the statement said.
Underreporting could be one possible explanation for the excess deaths, says James Talbot, former chief medical officer of health for Alberta, adding that the province only records test-positive deaths.
“So people who died at home, in the ambulance, or in emergency situations before they could be tested would be included in the excess deaths,” he wrote in an email to CBC News.
But Talbot thinks delays in getting medical care for other conditions, toxic medications, and an overburdened medical system could also be culprits.
Fabro, a public health researcher at the University of California, agreed that a stressed healthcare system affects patient outcomes.
He says plenty of research shows that overcapacity health services cause additional deaths, whether it’s a rise in waiting times for ambulances or emergency vehicles, or a decrease in the number of nurses on hospital wards.
“This could lead to a significant increase in missed cancer diagnoses that we are seeing, which is due to the collapse of primary care,” he said.
He said the lack of adequate mental health care could lead to overdoses and alcohol-related hepatitis from an increase in alcohol use during the pandemic.
Fabbro also noted that social and medical complications from the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 have led to an escalation in deaths.
“There is a long series of serious complications that come with COVID,” he said.
“Strokes, heart attacks, blood clots, organ failure — those are deaths, those are deaths and morbidities that may not have been portrayed as COVID but certainly add to the growing burden of mortality.”
Misinformation fills the void
When it comes to calculating excess deaths, researchers like Moriarty believe it’s important information for the health system and citizens.
Much of this data is available from the Canadian Health Information Institute (CIHI) and Statistics Canada, she said, but delays in reporting from many provinces make painting a regional or national picture difficult.
Fabro agrees.
“When data is not available or difficult to access, we have learned that in the everyday age of misinformation [that] We will fill in the gaps with rubbish, confuse the population and make it difficult for people to understand what is happening.”
Some reports of excess death numbers in other countries, such as United kingdom and the United Statehave fueled false claims online that vaccines are to blame.
Fabro, who is leading a national study of COVID vaccines, says there is no evidence that vaccination increases the risk of death, according to his reading of the literature.
“If anything, it’s just the opposite – it dramatically reduces the risk of death and serious illness,” he said. “And I’ve seen a lot of people die from COVID.”
Almost 97 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine So far it has been administered in Canada, and nearly 32 million Canadians have been vaccinated.
Health Canada data It shows that of the 400 post-vaccination deaths reported to the agency, its investigation identified/found only four “consistent with a causal link to immunization.” one of those deaths took place in Alberta.
more than 50,000 deaths have been associated with the COVID-19 virus in Canada.
Fabro says Alberta could, without a lot of work, provide more detailed and comprehensive data on hospital wait times, ambulance reports, wait times, hospital capacity, and major and minor surgical wait times, without compromising patient privacy.
“We’re paying for these health systems,” he said. “So we have to have access to data about them, and I think that improves accountability and improves trust.”
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